Oscar Predictions Update – The BAFTA Effect

The Oscars 2014 Data

Last month I introduced to you my amazing new statistical approach for predicting the Oscar winners. Amazing, new, and stolen from Nate Silver. With the BAFTAs having been announced we now have much more fleshed out statistics and the predictions are becoming ever more clear. Sadly my 100% foolproof prediction technique seems to be agreeing with the bookmakers’ picks so any attempt for me to get rich is not going to happen.

Below are my updated charts (oooh charts!) which look at each category in turn, just select the category you want to look at from the drop down menu (oooh drop down menu!). If you want to read about the methodology have a look at the previous post.

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave

Already the frontrunner last month 12 Years a Slave now holds the BAFTA in this most important category and so looks unbeatable at the Oscar ceremony. Start practising your speech Steve McQueen.

Directing
Gravity

Another predicted winner that was set for Oscar success without the need for BAFTA support. Now with the golden mask secured Gravity is statistically unbeatable… let’s just hope the voters realise my integrity is at stake.

Actor in a Leading Role
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Every nominee apart from Christian Bale has won at least one precursor award for this category but, regardless of Chiwetel Ejiofor’s win last night, Matthew McConaughey has won more of the most accurate award predictors. With its British skew BAFTA only predicts this category 54% of the time.

Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Cate Blanchett has continued to gather awards for her role in Blue Jasmine and this success is giving her the most striking statistic of all with an 80% chance of winning the Oscar. Poor Judi Dench might as well stay at home.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

While the BAFTA went to the deserving newcomer Barkhad Abdi from Captain Phillips it’s not enough to take on Jared Leto’s near clean sweep for Dallas Buyers Club which leaves him more likely to win than not.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle

For now at least. The BAFTA win for Lawrence, with its 77% accuracy rating, has pushed her ahead of former frontrunner Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave. The stats are close though and if Nyong’o can win the Independent Spirit award the day before the Oscars (an award Lawrence is not nominated for) she will JUST gain the lead. Far too close to call this one.

Original Screenplay
Spike Jonze for Her

Forget the BAFTAs for a minute as the WGA awards have also taken place recently and they are key predictor when it comes to the writing category, most likely as the two voting panels will have a large overlap. As such the WGA win for Her has let it increase its lead slightly, though with a probability of victory as low as 36% American Hustle could steal the show.

Adapted Screenplay
Billy Ray for Captain Phillips

Captain Phillips winning the WGA award and Philomena the BAFTA has given this already contentious category a little shake-up. The front-runner now is Captain Phillips with a slightly above average chance of victory at 25%.

Documentary
20 Feet from Stardom / The Act of Killing

The most awarded film in this category, Stories We Tell, isn’t nominated for the Oscar so from a data point of view we’re fighting for table scraps. Currently 20 Feet from Stardom and The Act of Killing are level pegging but that isn’t saying much. A win at the Spirit Awards for either film would be a real boon for both them and my statistics.

Animated Film
Frozen

Last time we checked Frozen had a healthy lead over the competition and since then has won the 100% accurate BAFTA award and the category specific Annie Award leaving it with a 74% chance of success. This isn’t quite as safe as Cate Blanchett but I would be amazed if any other animation got the Oscar.

Foreign Film
The Great Beauty

Blue is the Warmest Colour was ruining this category by winning all the awards but not having an Oscar nomination. Thankfully The Great Beauty has added a BAFTA to its Golden Globe and is looking like a much healthier contender for the all important golden statue.

We’ll have one final look at how things stand after the Independent Spirit Awards on 1st March and then on the 2nd my results will truly be put to the test.