Following the fun of last year’s live ramble I’m staying up all night again to watch rich people give each other small golden statues as a reward for pretending to be other people. I am here tonight for two reasons:
1. I want to see how well my statistical predictions have fared.
2. I have the day off work tomorrow anyway to receive an IKEA delivery.
Two very important reasons I am sure you will agree…
As for those statistical predictions; the final figures are in. After last night’s Independent Spirit Awards I have all the data I need to make my predictions. Only two categories have shifted since our last look at the numbers so I won’t linger on the maths too much today. Simply put Lupita Nyong’o has edged ahead of Jennifer Lawrence in the race for Best Supporting Actress but the figures are so close either could easily win. The only other category to change is the award for best Documentary in which 20 Feet from Stardom has broken away from The Act of Killing despite the latter being a hugely deserving winner. Will my numbers be right, only time will tell.
The live ramble will start as soon as I have something to say and will finish around 4am at which point I will be making less sense than usual and my use of commas will be criminal. To view the live ramble click here and scroll down below the “Related Posts” to either join me live in a journey through insomnia or simply read through the evening in the morning.
For reference here are my FINAL Oscar predictions:
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Now I’m off to bed rather than listen to Alex Zane witter on any more. Good night!
Steve McQueen is very excited, it’s pretty adorable.
A near clean sweep for my statistical model! Hurray for maths!!!
Oh, and films.
And the Oscar goes to 12 Years a Slave!!!
Despite some reason flops WIll Smith is here to present the Best Film award. Will it be 12 Years a Slave? 44.35% chance of success I reckon
McConaughey’s speech is epic. Check it out on YouTube if you can
More importantly I am on 90% accuracy so far.
And he wins! The career transformation is complete
This is McConaughey’s award to lose. He best win as I went to the trouble of learning to spell him name
Jennifer Lawrence walks out without tripping to present the award for lead actor. She seems to be heckling an audience member we can’t see.
Cate Blanchett – “As random and subjective as this award is it means a great deal”
Phew, Blanchett won. That would have been embarrassing otherwise
They still have to pretend the other nominees have a chance though
Daniel Day Lewis has come on to give Cate Blanchett an award
Of course he does!
Will Alfonso Cuaron win as I (and everyone else) expects?
Angelina Jolie and Sidney Poitier present the award for Best Director and generally celebrate Sidney Poitier
6 out of 7 right so far with 4 awards left to go.
And the Oscar goes to Spike Jonze for Her!!
Original screenplay now and I predict Her
To be fair to myself, the odds were pretty flat.
And the Oscar goes to… 12 Years a Slave
The model’s first failure
I’m going for Captain Phillips against all expert advice
Robert De Niro and Penelope Cruz present the award for Best Adapted Screenplay
Lovely rhyming acceptance speech. I appreciate the extra effort
Best Original Song: Let It Go from Frozen
Disney are back!
He just spoilt the ending to Gravity. COME ON!
Gravity only went and won itself another award
Jamie Foxx and Jessica Biel presenting the award for Best Score. Foxx is recreating Chariots of Fire
John Travolta introduces Let it Go from Frozen. The stage is all twinkly.
That wasn’t very positive was it? YAY! OSCARS!! YAY!!!
Goldie Hawn introduces clips from Philomena, Captain Phillips, and 12 Years a Slave. This will be the last montage for the Best Picture Nominees so hopefully we’re on the final stretch
Now the montage is done (a sad, long one) Bette Midler is singing Wind Beneath My Wings which is a slightly patronising song and perhaps should have gone over the montage rather than after?
The In Memoriam montage is one I will allow
Not really over of course. Glenn Close introduced the montage of the recently deceased. Expect a lot of clapping for Philip Seymour Hoffman
The night is complete.
Chris Evans presents… ANOTHER MONTAGE
Great Gatsby wins! The film wasn’t great but it sure was pretty
Garner and Cumberbatch present the award for Best Production Design
Ellen does Oz
Pink is singing. Tim is sleeping.
Must. Stay. Awake.
Gravity wins. Repeat as required
Best Editing now… what’s the betting that Gravity takes this one too?
Gravity wins another one! Best Cinematography
Nice little shout out to the late Harold Ramis
Amy Adams and Bill Murray present the award for “best shooter”
Lupita Nyong’o – “No matter where you’re from your dreams are valid”
And the winner is… Lupita Nyong’o. THE STATS RULE!
It must be Lupita, surely
Christophe Waltz looking very chipper as he presents the award for Best Supporting Actress. Will Lupita Nyong’o win as I predict, or will it be Jennifer Lawrence?
Lots of Brits getting tech awards for Gravity. Lovely stuff
Now the award for Sound Editing which is somehow a whole separate award. I realise there are good reasons for there being two awards really.
Gravity wins for best sound… something
Chris Hemsworth and Charlize Theron presenting the sound awards now. And messing up their autocue
These two are presenting a summary of the technical awards. Important stuff but not glitzy enough for the main show
Meryl Streep – “I’ve never tweeted before!”
A standing ovation? BAH
“Your heart is on my sleeve
Did you put there with a magic marker”
Do you think Bono’s sunglasses are prescription?
Brad Pitt introduces U2 singing Ordinary Love from Mandela. I hate U2 so much. SO MUCH
There’s a lot of montages this year and not a lot else.
Tyler Perry, a man much more famous in America, introduced the next three Best Picture nominees; Nebraska, Her, and Gravity
I am 100% accurate so far which is quite pleasing
And the winner is…. The Great Beauty
The Hunt was very good though
Now Best Foreign Language Film presented by Ewan McGregor and Viola Davis. I have predicted The Great Beauty
Alex Zane is great at simply reading out Twitter rather than engage with the panel who have given up a night’s sleep for Sky
Kevin Spacey is doing his House of Cards voice for some reason
One of the singers from the film just sang her acceptance speech and everyone, especially Bill Murray, loved it
I was sure I’d get that one wrong
20 Feet from Stardom is what the stats say… AND THEY WERE RIGHT!!
After some slightly awkward pizza jokes from Ellen Bradley Cooper is out to present the Best Documentary award. I am not sure who will win…
Now Best Documentary short. I’ve seen none… sorry. The winner is… The Lady at Number 6: Music Saved My Life
I want the Voorman Problem to win
Kate Hudson and Jason Sudeikis are presenting the award for Live Action Short. Hudson’s mother Goldie Hawn gave her a special little clap
Zac Efron introduces Karen O singing The Moon Song from Her. A beautiful understated song compared to Pharrell’s madness earlier
A friend of a friend of mine did Sandra Bullock’s CGI breath in Gravity. Therefore this award is for me really
The Oscar goes to Gravity. OF COURSE IT DOES!!
Emma Watson and JGL now (what a pair!) presenting the award for Visual effects
Sally Field has just introduced what seems like a montage of clips of film “heroes”. I do not know why
Frozen! Two correct so far!
And now Best Animated Feature, which should go to Frozen
Oscar for short animation goes to Mr Hublot. I haven’t seen it but it looks as charming as animated shorts tend to be
Kim Novak and Matthew McConaughey are having a weirdly scripted chat about animation. They seem to be reading autocues from two different conversations.
Ben Miller and Emelia Fox are also in the Sky studio. Ben looks tired and Fox looks very… bronzed
Channing Tatum! He is talking about a children’s short film competition he helped judge. It’s like he’s talking about a project he did for school
Tell a lie… he was just covering THREE of the nominees (from which we are now watching clips) American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, and Wolf of Wall Street
The autocue continues, and so does Ford just about, and he grumbles about the other best picture nominations
Harrison Ford has limped out to the Indiana Jones film to mumble at us all about American Hustle
Oscar for best make-up goes to Dallas Buyer Club. FUN FACT: Their entire make-up budget was $500. True story
Winner drops in the fact that she is married to Baz Luhrmann and everyone suddenly claps a little bit harder
Naomi almost fell over trying to kiss the winner on the cheek, her dress seems impractical. Jackson has no such problem
Now Noami Watts and Samuel L. Jackson present Costume Design… and the Oscar goes to… Catherine Martin for the Great Gatsby
As usual the Sky panel commenting on the awards includes Alex Zane and Boyd Hilton.
FUN FACT: Boyd once at popcorn sat next to me, and stared at me on the tube a second time
He’s done now. Phew. I believe he was performing his Oscar nominated song “Happy” from Despicable Me 2
Meryl Streep just shimmied at him. That or I am asleep
Pharrel WIlliams is now singing in a giant hat. I want to go back to sleep!
Thankfully I didn’t miss Jim Carrey doing an uncanny Bruce Dern impression. I’d have taken a screencapture but I’m still waking up
The good news is my prediction was right, the bad news is I missed the opening number
Confession time… I fell asleep. I have woken up halfway through Jared Leto’s speech
Testing, testing, 1, 2, 3