Mild Concern Oscars 2014 Live Ramble

The Oscars 2014 Data

Following the fun of last year’s live ramble I’m staying up all night again to watch rich people give each other small golden statues as a reward for pretending to be other people. I am here tonight for two reasons:

1. I want to see how well my statistical predictions have fared.
2. I have the day off work tomorrow anyway to receive an IKEA delivery.

Two very important reasons I am sure you will agree…

As for those statistical predictions; the final figures are in. After last night’s Independent Spirit Awards I have all the data I need to make my predictions. Only two categories have shifted since our last look at the numbers so I won’t linger on the maths too much today. Simply put Lupita Nyong’o has edged ahead of Jennifer Lawrence in the race for Best Supporting Actress but the figures are so close either could easily win. The only other category to change is the award for best Documentary in which 20 Feet from Stardom has broken away from The Act of Killing despite the latter being a hugely deserving winner. Will my numbers be right, only time will tell.

The live ramble will start as soon as I have something to say and will finish around 4am at which point I will be making less sense than usual and my use of commas will be criminal. To view the live ramble click here and scroll down below the “Related Posts” to either join me live in a journey through insomnia or simply read through the evening in the morning.

For reference here are my FINAL Oscar predictions:

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20145:01 am

Now I’m off to bed rather than listen to Alex Zane witter on any more. Good night!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20145:01 am

Steve McQueen is very excited, it’s pretty adorable.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:58 am

A near clean sweep for my statistical model! Hurray for maths!!!

Oh, and films.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:57 am

And the Oscar goes to 12 Years a Slave!!!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:56 am

Despite some reason flops WIll Smith is here to present the Best Film award. Will it be 12 Years a Slave? 44.35% chance of success I reckon

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:54 am

McConaughey’s speech is epic. Check it out on YouTube if you can

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:52 am

More importantly I am on 90% accuracy so far.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:51 am

And he wins! The career transformation is complete

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:50 am

This is McConaughey’s award to lose. He best win as I went to the trouble of learning to spell him name

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:49 am

Jennifer Lawrence walks out without tripping to present the award for lead actor. She seems to be heckling an audience member we can’t see.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:46 am

Cate Blanchett – “As random and subjective as this award is it means a great deal”

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:45 am

Phew, Blanchett won. That would have been embarrassing otherwise

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:43 am

They still have to pretend the other nominees have a chance though

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:42 am

Daniel Day Lewis has come on to give Cate Blanchett an award

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:35 am

Of course he does!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:34 am

Will Alfonso Cuaron win as I (and everyone else) expects?

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:34 am

Angelina Jolie and Sidney Poitier present the award for Best Director and generally celebrate Sidney Poitier

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:28 am

6 out of 7 right so far with 4 awards left to go.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:28 am

And the Oscar goes to Spike Jonze for Her!!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:27 am

Original screenplay now and I predict Her

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:27 am

To be fair to myself, the odds were pretty flat.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:26 am

And the Oscar goes to… 12 Years a Slave

The model’s first failure

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:25 am

I’m going for Captain Phillips against all expert advice

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:25 am

Robert De Niro and Penelope Cruz present the award for Best Adapted Screenplay

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:19 am

Lovely rhyming acceptance speech. I appreciate the extra effort

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:17 am

Best Original Song: Let It Go from Frozen

Disney are back!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:16 am

He just spoilt the ending to Gravity. COME ON!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:15 am

Gravity only went and won itself another award

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:14 am

Jamie Foxx and Jessica Biel presenting the award for Best Score. Foxx is recreating Chariots of Fire

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:10 am

John Travolta introduces Let it Go from Frozen. The stage is all twinkly.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:07 am

That wasn’t very positive was it? YAY! OSCARS!! YAY!!!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:07 am

Goldie Hawn introduces clips from Philomena, Captain Phillips, and 12 Years a Slave. This will be the last montage for the Best Picture Nominees so hopefully we’re on the final stretch

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20144:00 am

Now the montage is done (a sad, long one) Bette Midler is singing Wind Beneath My Wings which is a slightly patronising song and perhaps should have gone over the montage rather than after?

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:55 am

The In Memoriam montage is one I will allow

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:54 am

Not really over of course. Glenn Close introduced the montage of the recently deceased. Expect a lot of clapping for Philip Seymour Hoffman

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:49 am

FOOTLOOSE CLIP!!!

The night is complete.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:47 am

Chris Evans presents… ANOTHER MONTAGE

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:45 am

Great Gatsby wins! The film wasn’t great but it sure was pretty

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:45 am

Garner and Cumberbatch present the award for Best Production Design

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:44 am

Ellen does Oz

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:38 am

Pink is singing. Tim is sleeping.

Must. Stay. Awake.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:31 am

Gravity wins. Repeat as required

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:30 am

Best Editing now… what’s the betting that Gravity takes this one too?

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:28 am

Gravity wins another one! Best Cinematography

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:28 am

Nice little shout out to the late Harold Ramis

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:27 am

Amy Adams and Bill Murray present the award for “best shooter”

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:18 am

Lupita Nyong’o – “No matter where you’re from your dreams are valid”

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:18 am

Beautiful speech.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:16 am

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:15 am

And the winner is… Lupita Nyong’o. THE STATS RULE!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:13 am

It must be Lupita, surely

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:12 am

Christophe Waltz looking very chipper as he presents the award for Best Supporting Actress. Will Lupita Nyong’o win as I predict, or will it be Jennifer Lawrence?

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:11 am

Lots of Brits getting tech awards for Gravity. Lovely stuff

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:10 am

Now the award for Sound Editing which is somehow a whole separate award. I realise there are good reasons for there being two awards really.

Gravity wins

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:08 am

Sound Mixing!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:08 am

Gravity wins for best sound… something

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:07 am

Chris Hemsworth and Charlize Theron presenting the sound awards now. And messing up their autocue

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:06 am

Veronica Mars!

These two are presenting a summary of the technical awards. Important stuff but not glitzy enough for the main show

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20143:04 am

Meryl Streep – “I’ve never tweeted before!”

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:59 am

A standing ovation? BAH

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:57 am

Sample lyrics:

“Your heart is on my sleeve
Did you put there with a magic marker”

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:56 am

Do you think Bono’s sunglasses are prescription?

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:55 am

Brad Pitt introduces U2 singing Ordinary Love from Mandela. I hate U2 so much. SO MUCH

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:53 am

There’s a lot of montages this year and not a lot else.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:52 am

Tyler Perry, a man much more famous in America, introduced the next three Best Picture nominees; Nebraska, Her, and Gravity

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:50 am

I am 100% accurate so far which is quite pleasing

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:50 am

And the winner is…. The Great Beauty

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:50 am

The Hunt was very good though

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:49 am

Now Best Foreign Language Film presented by Ewan McGregor and Viola Davis. I have predicted The Great Beauty

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:47 am

Alex Zane is great at simply reading out Twitter rather than engage with the panel who have given up a night’s sleep for Sky

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:41 am

Kevin Spacey is doing his House of Cards voice for some reason

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:41 am

One of the singers from the film just sang her acceptance speech and everyone, especially Bill Murray, loved it

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:39 am

I was sure I’d get that one wrong

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:38 am

20 Feet from Stardom is what the stats say… AND THEY WERE RIGHT!!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:38 am

After some slightly awkward pizza jokes from Ellen Bradley Cooper is out to present the Best Documentary award. I am not sure who will win…

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:34 am

Now Best Documentary short. I’ve seen none… sorry. The winner is… The Lady at Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:32 am

Helium won.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:32 am

I want the Voorman Problem to win

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:31 am

Kate Hudson and Jason Sudeikis are presenting the award for Live Action Short. Hudson’s mother Goldie Hawn gave her a special little clap

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:26 am

Zac Efron introduces Karen O singing The Moon Song from Her. A beautiful understated song compared to Pharrell’s madness earlier

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:23 am

A friend of a friend of mine did Sandra Bullock’s CGI breath in Gravity. Therefore this award is for me really

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:22 am

The Oscar goes to Gravity. OF COURSE IT DOES!!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:22 am

Emma Watson and JGL now (what a pair!) presenting the award for Visual effects

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:19 am

Sally Field has just introduced what seems like a montage of clips of film “heroes”. I do not know why

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:16 am

Frozen! Two correct so far!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:15 am

And now Best Animated Feature, which should go to Frozen

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:14 am

Oscar for short animation goes to Mr Hublot. I haven’t seen it but it looks as charming as animated shorts tend to be

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:13 am

Kim Novak and Matthew McConaughey are having a weirdly scripted chat about animation. They seem to be reading autocues from two different conversations.

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:11 am

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:10 am

Ben Miller and Emelia Fox are also in the Sky studio. Ben looks tired and Fox looks very… bronzed

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:07 am

Channing Tatum! He is talking about a children’s short film competition he helped judge. It’s like he’s talking about a project he did for school

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:05 am

Tell a lie… he was just covering THREE of the nominees (from which we are now watching clips) American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, and Wolf of Wall Street

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:04 am

The autocue continues, and so does Ford just about, and he grumbles about the other best picture nominations

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:03 am

Harrison Ford has limped out to the Indiana Jones film to mumble at us all about American Hustle

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:01 am

Oscar for best make-up goes to Dallas Buyer Club. FUN FACT: Their entire make-up budget was $500. True story

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:01 am

Winner drops in the fact that she is married to Baz Luhrmann and everyone suddenly claps a little bit harder

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20142:00 am

Naomi almost fell over trying to kiss the winner on the cheek, her dress seems impractical. Jackson has no such problem

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20141:59 am

Now Noami Watts and Samuel L. Jackson present Costume Design… and the Oscar goes to… Catherine Martin for the Great Gatsby

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20141:58 am

As usual the Sky panel commenting on the awards includes Alex Zane and Boyd Hilton.

FUN FACT: Boyd once at popcorn sat next to me, and stared at me on the tube a second time

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20141:56 am

He’s done now. Phew. I believe he was performing his Oscar nominated song “Happy” from Despicable Me 2

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20141:53 am

Meryl Streep just shimmied at him. That or I am asleep

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20141:52 am

Pharrel WIlliams is now singing in a giant hat. I want to go back to sleep!

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20141:51 am

Thankfully I didn’t miss Jim Carrey doing an uncanny Bruce Dern impression. I’d have taken a screencapture but I’m still waking up

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20141:49 am

The good news is my prediction was right, the bad news is I missed the opening number

Tim Monday, 3rd March 20141:47 am

Confession time… I fell asleep. I have woken up halfway through Jared Leto’s speech

Tim Sunday, 2nd March 201410:59 pm

Testing, testing, 1, 2, 3